I am writing an article for the American Bar Association Senior Lawyers Division on how technology will help us remain independent as we age.
My bold statement is that autonomous vehicles will be the biggest change in how we move about in our daily lives, since automobiles replaced horses. I have written about my Waymo ride in Phoenix, I eagerly await their start of service here in the DC area this year.
Apps and email are replacing letters. The Danish Post Office will end letter delivery and concentrate on package delivery. I find that sad. But I can count on my fingers the number of personal letters and cards I have sent or received in the last year. The average address in Denmark received one letter or card per month. Advertising is delivered by private contractors, and letter delivery will be offered by private contractors (think Fedex, without the planes.) Package delivery is a rapidly growing industry in Denmark (and most of the world.)
Britain is going to or has phased out processing paper checks (cheques.) I am down to writing very few checks, the property tax office wants to charge extra to pay by card, and I am too stingy to pay extra on top of my rather large tax bill. We are getting closer and closer to not having any real mail in our mail.
I did a little research, 98% of persons age 64 in the USA regularly use the internet. This drops to about half by age 80. But in another decade or two, the number of adults who are not digitally connected will drop to only those who need help with basic transactions with or without technology. We are only a decade or two away from not needing cash, checks and letter delivery.
My older sister and I were trading text messages. Her 50th High School Reunion is coming up next month. Her first thought was where has the time gone? Then it was with the changes we have see in our lives, what will her grandchildren see in their lifetimes? Her sons grew up with computers in the their rooms. Our grandparents went from horse and buggy to man walking on the moon. We went from typewriters to more computing power in our hand than was used to land on the moon when we were children.
There are a couple of companies developing supersonic airliners. One has successfully tested a design that eliminates the sonic boom. Now to show economic viability. There has not been a major advance in air travel in nearly 70 years.
Passenger carrying drones are being developed and tested. These are more Jetsons, than flying cars. And yes, I would ride in one.
Things are going to continue to change.
Did the pandemic also accelerate some of these changes? In earlier times, if one did not have a driver's license, staying at home and aging in place was a challenge. One aspect of the pandemic was the normalization of Door Dash, the return of home delivery services, and the increased use of non-cash transactions. I think that the only thing that I still use cash for is buying gas because the discount is about 5%). The increased use of Zoom, MS Teams, and WebX (and Lord only knows what else - I'm not an early innovator) have expanded connection or at least reduced isolation. Currently I meet with a group M-F mornings, and I can "attend" church services online to maintain community connections. Right now I write one check a month to the yard guy, but when on vacation I will write postcards and, if I'm lucky, will find a postal clerk who will hand stamp the cancellation with the local post office rather than the regional center.
ReplyDeleteWill Jay
The finished article went onto talk about how the better mouse trap of technology, is bringing the world to our doors. There is a fleet of autonomous delivery robots in the City of Fairfax, here in northern Virginia. It is a really dense area, where the door dash drivers have a hard time finding a place to stop, the robots roll along the sidewalk and right up to the door, and send you a text with a code to open the top and retrieve your delivery.
DeleteIf the world and its people (even the ones who aren’t rich) could only survive to see it all. We often talk about what our grandparents witnessed in their lives, from the late 1800s to the late 1900s. Incredible to think how the world changed in their lifetimes. I even imagine my sister returning and being in awe of what has happened since 1981.
ReplyDeleteThe earth is robust, and so are humans. And yes, the changes are mind boggling. My first "smart phone" was a blackberry, and the guy who sold it to me lied. He said in a week we won't be able to pry it out of your hand, it was less than 24 hours before I felt that way.
DeleteWe still get some mail, some bills, but even those are paid electronically now.
ReplyDeleteI wonder about flying cars given the way so many people drive on the ground.
There are practical reasons why "flying cars" are unlikely, autonomous personal drones could work, and do so with some degree of safety, but not in Manhattan.
DeleteYes, I'm afraid the old ways of mail and package delivery are obsolete now. Canada Post is losing taxpayer money hand over fist but government doesn't have the guts to cut it, at least not yet.
ReplyDeleteIn USA, fixed price postal delivery is an absolute lifeline in very rural areas. I immagine Canada has the same issue (assuming that it costs the same amount to send a box to Yellowknife as it does to send it to Toronto. Establishing postal delivery, was a priority in the colonial Americas.
DeletePower outages will have a huge impact when everything is electronic. My son had to move his work computer home the other day when Internet went out at work and we had power here.
ReplyDeleteChina has embraced solar electric, gone from nearly none, to a significant part of their power supply in a decade. We need to embrace new ideas.
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