The Thursday Ramble: Dumb Luck

AI Generated image from original photo of the Jones Point Lighthouse. The building is one story and the light tower on the top is missing. There are no mountains across the water. 

Two days in a row last week, I solved Wordle in three without resorting to any help or reference works.  Some of that is knowledge, starting with words that contain commonly used letters, knowing what letters are most likely to appear in second or fourth place, knowing what letter combinations are most likely, but most of it is luck. Very bright people that I know, struggled with the same two puzzles. 

At times like this it is easy to react or have people say, "you are on a lucky streak, you should buy lottery tickets this week!" Smile, my rational brain tells me that luck does not run in streaks. The impulse of our random reward brains is to think that because we have received rewards recently, luck is more likely to pay off again. But the reality is that luck is entirely random.  Casinos make their money on people who win a little and keep losing thinking that because they won a little the big jackpot has to be next. The big jackpots are often won on the first spin of the slot machine. Luck is random, and unpredictable. 

The weather forecast across the middle of the United States this past week talked about a large winter storm. Literally the forecasts for our corner of the world ranged from 1 inch to 24 inches of snow. I have been here when we had 24 inches of snow in one week, it takes a while to dig out from. But I have also seen snowmageddon forecast, only to get 2-3 inches. In either case, don't panic.  It is down to the luck of the winds, the drift of the clouds, sooner or later the big snow will hit, sooner or later the snow will entirely miss us. There is no reason to panic.